As U.S. College Enrollment decreases with a huge dip in 2028, Brilliance is a platform that helps connect the right international students to the right U.S. universities.
What will College Enrollment be like in 2029?
College Enrollment Falls as Job Market Recovers (chart 1)
College enrollment and the economy have an inverse relationship. In 1992, college enrollment increased when job market was difficult and in 2008 it was amplified when the economy and job market imploded. As the job market recovers, college enrollment will fall and this trend will continue in the years to come.
Number of 18 year olds will decrease by 2029 (chart 2)
The other factor that affects college enrollment is the number of freshmen. The number of freshmen will drop off rapidly because a two year old today will be an 18 year old in 2029 which allows us to make that projection. (chart #2)
As colleges have been riding a bubble, they have grown to meet a demand that will not last.
China, India, S. Korea as Targeted Demographics
Our targeted students will be from China, India, and the Republic of Korea. Even though growth in these countries has plateaued, they are still very large markets. So we will begin with China and continue into India and South Korea in the third year. (chart 1)
Once we’re established in those countries, we plan to expand to wealthy middle eastern countries which are smaller markets but recently have shown significant growth. (chart 2)
So who do we want to target? Wealth is concentrated in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou so that’s the best place to start. (chart 3)
The Brilliance Process
Business Model
Basic operating costs will be covered by the application fees. But where the revenue is made is through a targeted 5% cut of tuition and expenses. This will easily cover the advertising costs and provide us with a respectable profit. (chart 1)
This is how many students we anticipate over the first five years which constitutes a conservative 1-2% of the market. (chart 2)
Combining those students with the anticipated revenue streams results in what you can see will be a very profitable business, clearing 100 million our fourth year. (chart 3)
Next Steps:
In order to fine tune our system, we would like to do a test run of ten students. This would be a good way to get proof of concept and would yield a lot of valuable information. The next phase we are seeking $600,000 in funding.
Project Members: Rich Siemer, Tom Smiley, Mariana Somma